Expectations: random thoughts on the presidency

I'm listening to an audiobook of Barack Obama's Dreams of My Father on my ipod while I run, lately. Keeps me occupied during my long training runs (I have a marathon in 3 weeks), and it's a welcome break from my usual routine of heavy metal (AC/DC is great for distance running, but on occasion a little variety is a good thing).

It's an interesting book, made more so by the fact that Obama himself narrates (he does a really nice job with the dialogue). I'll not delve too much into my personal politics here, except to observe that, if he wins the election, he'll be unique. I don't think we've ever elected a person with his background to the White House before, and I don't just mean his race.

And it does look increasingly likely that, barring some last-minute change in fortunes, he will probably will win the presidency.

I also happen to be digging through the Lincoln documents related to his period as president-elect, during the winter of 1860-1861. Reading the material on Lincoln, it occurred to me how high expectations were for him during that period, especially during the train journey from Springfield to Washington DC. Americans crowded the train and Lincoln's hotel rooms at every stop, looking for answers during a very trying time.

It seems to me that Obama is facing a somewhat similar situation. No, the nation isn't coming apart, but with the economy in a shambles, our foreign policy in a state of flux, and a deep reservoir of distrust for the government and political institutions generally--well, there's a lot of angst out there. If he's elected, people will crowd Obama, too; not literally on a train platform, of course, but the attitude will be much the same: high expectations

Obama has perhaps raised those expectations higher than usual, with his conscious effort to run as an outsider, a breath of fresh air. He says he's different, and people will expect much of that difference. In fact, I think the expectations will be on the unrealistic side, particularly among his more ardent supporters.

That's all well and good, but the truth is that those expectations are bound to be disappointed. They always are. Reading the reactions to Lincoln's election, I see something similar at work: an unknown man from a brand new party with an antislavery plank, Lincoln supporters waxed giddy in the days after his election, thinking an entirely new, grand day had dawned. Even skeptics wanted him to somehow, some way "fix" secession before it got out of hand. He didn't; he couldn't. And inevitably the letdown led to bitter, even violent denunciations.

Obama faces the same problem. His election won't fix the economy overnight. It won't erase the threat of terrorism, and it won't solve all our foreign policy problems. He won't be able to remake Washington politics, or eradicate lobbyists, or single-handedly fix social security or health care. No one could.

I wonder how he'll react, how the country will react, when unrealistic expectations run up against messy realities?

During the Civil War, people reacted by making Lincoln into a polarizing figure. I think we sometimes forget this; we forget the fact that, on the whole, Lincoln was so controversial during his time. People really, really hated the guy, and I'm not just talking about John Wilkes Booth, either.

Obama will, I think, end up becoming a polarizing figure as well, whether he wants to or not: a victim of his country's unrealistic expectations. I don't think he would intentionally do so; but then, neither did Lincoln, who once observed how odd it was that he was involved in so many controversial and overheated political contests, given how moderate a man he really was. Obama, possibly, will someday feel much the same way.